I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 40 days. The graph here has data of 25 countries, which together had 2,267,398 COVID-19 cases as of 11:00 am UTC/GMT (4:30 pm IST) yesterday, which was 85.3% of all 2,656,622 cases worldwide, and therefore a good reference sample.
Almost every day, I see several newspaper or TV reports trying to prove that India is far less affected by Coronavirus than many other countries, especially in the Western world. I also see reports of how our testing has increased 24 times or 33 times.
I have no doubt that all of this is Modi government propaganda. Let us see how much of it is actually true.
If you look at the graph, yes, it is right that, of the 25 countries, India (with 15.8 cases per million around 24 hours back) has fewer cases than all countries except Nigeria. But don’t miss out on the fact that India has done less tests per million (366) than all countries than Indonesia (221), Bangladesh (221) and Nigeria (40).
Surely, India cannot be expected to have the same “Infection Rate” (number of cases per million) as a Spain (4,558) or a USA (2,580) or a Canada (1,074) or even a Saudi Arabia (373), when we have only done 366 tests per million.
The correlation between Infection Rate (black towers in the graph) and Testing Rate (green towers) is quite clear by looking at the graph. Yes, there is no doubt that India has managed the disease well by imposing a lockdown quite early. But doing just 30,000 to 35,000 tests per day is not really the answer for a country with 1.366 billion people. To catch up with the average 14,652 tests/million done by the Top 20 countries in terms of Testing Rate, which are also doing an average of 688 new tests per million daily, we need to do 163,356 TESTS PER DAY FOR THE NEXT 120 DAYS. Can we do it?
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:00 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.745 million cases
- The global death toll is over 191,800
- India has reached 23,252 cases and 727 deaths as per covid19india.org
- India’s Maharashtra State, with 6,427 cases, would have ranked No.44 in the world if it were a country
- Turkey became the 7th country to cross 100,000 cases and Brazil the 11th to cross 50,000 cases
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 21 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 38 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
46 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- USA became the first country to cross 50,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 11 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)