This Data Analytics Study on the Coronavirus Pandemic is in its 21st day today. The 30 countries chosen for the Study are not just because these have reported the highest number of cases, but also because they comprise the most populated nations on earth – that is why Bangladesh, Nigeria and Vietnam are part of the study.
The Table with data from the chosen 30 countries comprises 1,090,284 COVID-19 cases (up 8% from 1,009,807 yesterday), which is 89.8% of the total 1,213,897 cases (up 7.4% from 1,130,114 yesterday) reported worldwide at 10:00 am UTC today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Coronavirus cases worldwide have gone up 3.56 times in 13 days. Cases in the 30 countries in my Study have gone up by 3.48 times, proving again that the 30 countries are a good sample. What continues to be alarming is that, if we exclude China and South Korea, the cases in the remaining 28 countries have grown at a significantly higher rate of 4.48 times in 13 days.
Turkey continues to be the country with the highest relative growth in the number of cases – this should not be confused with growth in the absolute number, which is in USA. The number of cases in Turkey have gone up 18.36 times in 12 days. At the same growth rate, Turkey will have more than 100,000 cases in the next 7 days.
Cases in Russia have gone up 11.3 times in 13 days (projected to cross 25,000 in 8 more days at the same growth rate); USA up 7.89 times (projected to cross 1 million in 7 more days); UK up 6.37 times (projected to cross 100,000 in 6 more days); Brazil up 5.7 times (projected to cross 25,000 in 7 more days); Belgium up 4.79 times (projected to cross 50,000 in 7 more days); France up 4.62 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 7 more days); and Spain up 3.55 times (projected to cross 200,000 in 4 more days).
However, one small good news is that the relative growth rate in almost all these countries has somewhat reduced in the past 4 days.
The number of cases in India have gone up 6.5 times in 13 days, putting India on the 5th rank in relative growth rate amongst the 30 countries in the Study. At this growth rate, India will have 10,000+ cases by 12th April. Let’s hope that the 21-day Lockdown ensures that this does not happen. In terms of the rank in number of cases in all countries (not just the 30 in this Study), India is now at No.29 (up from No.38 on 31st March).
All the projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory.
In 13 days, cases have gone up 8.68 times in the “Top 10” countries in the Table (the 10 with the highest relative growth rate), 4.4 times in the “Middle 10” countries, and 1.68 times in the “Bottom 10” countries. However, if we were to remove China and South Korea from the last group, the growth rate of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 2.32 times.
Of the 777,364 new cases reported in these 30 countries in the last 13 days, 97.6% are from the 18 countries that have at least 5,300 cases. As I have already said in each of my posts on this subject over the past 13 days, this only further proves that much more testing has been done in these 18 countries (3.686 tests per million people), than the 12 others (only 0.153 tests per million).
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:45 am UTC):
- The world now has almost 1.216 million cases
- The global death toll has crossed 65,500
- USA became the first country to cross 300,000 cases. The country will most likely cross a million cases by 12th April
- UK became the 8th country with over 40,000 cases, Brazil the 17th with over 10,000 cases, and Israel the 18th with 8000+ cases
The number of countries with 5000+ cases is 22 (up from 16 on 31st March)
33 countries have 3000+ cases
38 countries have 2000+ (up from 30 on 31st March)
58 countries have 1000+ cases (up from 44 on 31st March)
- France reported over 2,150 new deaths in the past 24 hours, USA over 1,000; UK over 700, Italy over 680, and Spain over 670
- 10 countries have 1000+ deaths (same as 3rd April)
- 26 countries have 100+ deaths (up from 23 on 3rd April)